Watch out for the “Reichstag- Moment"

On February 27, 1933, the German Reichstag building in Berlin was set ablaze. While the origins of the fire and the actual involvement of different forces in Germany are not entirely clear up to now, the consequences are undisputed: The fire was a pivotal moment in the grasp of power of the Nazi regime.

In the 1932 November Federal Election, the Nazi party (NSDAP) won 33.1% of the votes, was the most powerful party in parliament but had no majority and was far from the 2/3 majority they needed to change the constitution. While Adolf Hitler was first sworn in as German Chancellor at the head of a multiparty coalition government, the Reichstag fire, only three weeks after the elections, was the moment to set the stage for irreversible change.

The Nazis blamed the fire on communist arsonists. Claiming that the nation and its citizens would be in danger they used it as a pretext to implement policies that curtailed civil liberties, such as free speech and to silence political opponents. The Reichstag Fire Decree, issued the very next day, suspended many constitutional protections and allowed the government to arrest and detain individuals without due process. This moment marked the beginning of a systematic dismantling of democratic institutions in Germany.

Whether the fire was part of a broader plot by the Nazis or they just seized the opportunity of the moment, does not really matter from todays perspective but the Reichstag-Moment shows that autocratic regimes try to hide their seizure of power by stories of endangered national security and threat to the people on the streets. This allows them to take away liberties from the people without risking widespread opposition and upheaval.

A similar structure of events can be discovered in the 2016 coup attempt in Turkey, which made it possible for Erdogan to get rid of political opponents. Also the explosive attacks on apartment buildings in Moscow in 1999, orchestrated by the FSB and then blamed on Chechen militants, allowed Putin not only to start a war in Chechnya but also to strengthen his power within Russia.

The Executive Order Game – and what it tells us

Fast forward to the present day, since January 20, 2025, the new Trump administration has taken office. While the activism of the new government might feel like it has absolute power in the country, in reality they govern on the basis of executive orders – one of the weakest forms of law, which risks to be overturned by courts or Congress. This is surprising as the Republicans do have the majority in both chambers, but processes are long and majorities thin.

While it is understandable that Trump wants to avoid Congress procedures, to give the image of being powerful, he risks that his policies are as swiftly overturned as they have been implemented. This tactic only makes sense if one wants to change the situation only for a short time but enough to change the rules of the game.

The current Trump administration has shown a troubling disregard for fundamental civil rights. From labelling the free press as "the enemy of the people" to using executive orders to sidestep democratic processes. The administration's rhetoric and actions have created an environment where dissent is viewed as disloyalty, and criticism is met with hostility.

But the clock for the Trump administration is ticking. In 2026 already the midterms are due. In 2018, Trump’s first midterms, he lost 41 seats in the House, which was fewer than Obama in 2010 but more than any Republican President since Eisenhower. Given the thin majorities today he might loose both chambers in 2026.

While the new administration in the White House likes to show off US power on the international scene, nervousness about public opinion in the country is rising – rightfully so: A Defence secretary that endangers the life of US pilots by texting detailed war plans to a journalist. DOGE becoming unpopular among many citizens as they realise that important functions from government, which used to deal with their concerns, have been closed. And most important the markets not liking Trump policies, be it Wall Street where stocks are falling or Main Street where signs of rising inflation are back again. All this does not support the Republicans position for the 2026 elections. Most recently, the candidate for the UN ambassador job, Elise Stefanik, was withdrawn as the government feared to lose an election for her replacement in the House.

The way out for Trump

Will the time up to the midterms be enough to set up the country for a great future, which Trump has promised? The new administration has shown that it can change a lot within two months, so two years is a long time. But does Trump want to be the president who sits in office with the Congress against him, forcing policies on him?

This does not resonate well neither with his self-image nor with the image he would like to be remembered for. What would be a possible way out for him? A first option would be to stop the policies already implemented by him, but then he would be like all the politicians he mocked during his campaign, for not keeping their promises. The second option is to turn the attention away from these aspects and sell a story which keeps people away from voting for an opponent.

That is where the "Reichstag-Moment" comes in. A story that strong, that people give the government the power to take control - of everything. Elections won’t matter anymore, and executive orders will become law: The end of Democracy.

Testing the ground

The last weeks have shown attempts by the Trump team to slowly shake the foundations of US democracy: Dismantling of Federal Agencies, that only Congress has the right to dismantle. Disregarding court decisions regarding illegal deportations of immigrants using a legal trick. Calling opposing media outlets “illegal” and threaten them to cancel their licence. Proposing a law that invents a “Trump-Derangement-Syndrome” as a psychological disease. Cancelling access to the White House for a press agency that uses the normal term for the Golf of Mexico. Threatening universities to cut research spending if they don’t close. And what was very foreseeable, putting the two terms rule for Trump in questions – like Putin and Xi did before in their countries. All these are cuts to civil liberties and are preparing the ground for silencing with political opponents.

While each of these actions would have sparked loud opposition in all administrations before, Trump and this team were able to divert these voices by the sheer number of questionable policies implemented. But none of these policies is strong enough to really break US democracy. To really achieve this something bigger, more powerful and maybe shocking is needed. But all these steps are testing the ground.

What to do

Supporters of democracy need to prepare for this moment. To only react when it happens will be too late. It does not matter in what form it will be: A missile from a “Danish” jet flying over Greenland and hitting US soldiers. A “Canadian” car bomber attacking a government building in Washington. Another assassination attempt on Trump from a “left-wing” extremist.

The information war that follows will be crucial. Defenders of democracy will need to push back on all narratives that lead to the dismantling of democratic checks and balances, to cut of civil liberties or to attacks against political opponents. The government will be in control and use their means to silence other voices, blaming them as traitors, terrorists or just idiots. Opposing voices need to be very loud to be heard.

The best thing however will be to build vigilance in the time before the Reichstag moment. If people understand what it is and what the consequences are, they are more likely to challenge the narrative they hear.

So spread the word …